Solar topped coal’s output in Texas for the first time in any month, sending 3.26 million megawatt-hours (MWh) onto the grid vs. coal’s 2.96 million MWh in March.
ERCOT’s generation data also revealed that coal’s market share fell below 10% for the first time ever to simply over 9%. The decline began a decade ago but has picked up speed since 2016-17, when solar first showed up in the generation data, reports the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) today.
In March 2024, solar generation reached 3.26 million MWh, based on the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) hourly grid monitor. The increase pushed solar’s share of ERCOT generation to greater than 10% for the month, also a first.
Texas is the No 1 state for solar capability. Solar generation in Texas has been climbing steadily and continues to achieve momentum. Generation in March 2024 was 1.17 million MWh more year-over-year, a 56% increase.
According to IEEFA, ERCOT data shows that the system currently has 22,710 megawatts (MW) of operational solar capability but is anticipated to expand by almost one-third by the end of 2024, as one other 7,168 MW of capability is added. The figure counts only Texas solar projects which have a signed interconnection agreement and have put aside the financing required to get onto the ERCOT grid.
Even more growth is coming in the state in 2025, where projects with 20,932 MW of capability are in an analogous stage of development. There are 1000’s of additional megawatts of solar capability in earlier stages of development.
In contrast, coal’s share of the ERCOT market has been steadily declining. From 2003 through 2014, coal’s annual share of ERCOT demand ranged from 33-40%. By 2020, coal had dropped under 20% and was lower than 15% in 2023, supplying just 13.9% of the system’s total demand.
IEEFA’s researchers note that “importantly, the annual average is not being skewed by a couple of months of extremely low generation. Rather, coal’s market share in ERCOT is declining across the board, even during the sweltering summer months.”
Coal’s decline in Texas is a giant deal because the Lone Star State has long been the No 1 user of coal for power generation in the US. It burned twice as much as second-place Missouri in 2023 and 13% of the US total.
At the national level, in a first, EIA grid monitor data reflects that coal’s share of national electric generation was lower than 15% on daily basis in March. Coal’s national market share also hit a day by day record low on March 29, dropping to simply 11.25%.
Coal’s poor March performance is notable because, in recent years, it’s been April and May when its national market share has been at its lowest. IEEFA researchers say it’s “entirely possible that it could fall into the single digits on some days this spring.”
Read more: Texas installs one other big solar + battery storage project
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Credit : electrek.co
