Arsenal, Liverpool and Man City are separated by one point in the Premier League table; Mikel Arteta’s men are having the hardest run in the league; The Gunners last won the league title 20 years ago; The course of Premier League games and club statistics were analyzed
12:35, UK, Friday 12 April 2024
Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester City are all separated by one point in the Premier League table ahead of one other crucial weekend – but which team has the best probability of taking the crown in May?
Arsenal regained the top of the Premier League with a 3-0 win at Brighton on Saturday after Manchester City beat Crystal Palace to maintain pace with the Gunners, but Liverpool dropped two points after a 2-2 draw with Manchester United.
The title race appears to be heading to a decisive phase on the last day of the season, on Sunday, May 19.
Paul Merson described this clash as “the best-ever Premier League title fight”, while statistics show that it was also the hardest ever: never before has there been a single point or less between top and bottom after 31 games. third place.
So what do the teams’ fate seem like with eight games left?
ARSENAL
Reasons for self-confidence
Top-of-the-table Arsenal still appear to be considered the very unlikely of the three contenders, but the best defense normally wins titles and the Gunners have that this season. Their expected goals in games overall is unrivaled, reflecting their ability to suppress probabilities.
Arsenal were unable to search out an attacking level to match their defensive prowess earlier in the season, but that appears to be changing. They scored 38 goals of their last 11 league matches. The floodgates opened.
Bukayo Saka led the Gunners’ attack, while Martin Odegaard, Leandro Trossard and Kai Havertz are also improving.
Declan Rice had a big impact in midfield and the group looked hungrier and mentally stronger than last season.
Reasons to watch out
The capitulation of the previous season hangs over them. After blowing such a healthy lead against Man City when it appeared like they’d never get a greater probability, they now have lots to prove in relation to staying strong. These players wouldn’t have the same level of experience winning trophies as their rivals.
Despite all of Arsenal’s recent improvement offensively, query marks also remain at the No. 9 position. Gabriel Jesus gives them lots of things, but he isn’t a fantastic scorer. Could the absence of this outstanding striker with a killer touch still cost them?
LIVERPOOL
Reasons for self-confidence
Liverpool’s title was fueled by attacking strength, boosted by Mohamed Salah, who returned to the starting line-up and scored in a 2-1 win over Brighton earlier this month after missing much of the league this yr through injury to represent Egypt at the African Cup of Nations.
The support continues on the other side of the pitch, where Virgil van Dijk is back to close his best, Caoimhin Kelleher continues to prove himself a capable substitute for the injured Alisson, and even teenagers Bobby Clark, Jayden Danns and James McConnell are making impressive contributions .
Could the announcement of Jurgen Klopp’s departure at the end of the season improve their probabilities even further? The excitement definitely improved the atmosphere at Anfield.
Reasons to watch out
Klopp has worked wonders with Liverpool’s midfield, rebuilding it almost from scratch after the departures of Jordan Henderson, Fabinho, James Milner and Naby Keita last summer. However, they still lack a number 6 who can compete with Rodri or Declan Rice.
A bunch of key injured players will return, including Trent Alexander-Arnold, Alisson and Diogo Jota, but despite Van Dijk’s excellent defensive form, doubts remain and Joel Matip is ruled out for the rest of the season.
They have only conceded 30 goals, the second-fewest goals after Arsenal, but is the current rate sustainable? The numbers show they’re giving their opponents significantly higher probabilities than City and Arsenal, with an expected conceded rate of 36.52 goals against (xGa) thus far, in comparison with Arsenal’s 21.62 and City’s 30.31.
CITY OF GUYS
Reasons for self-confidence
How long have you ever had? Even after draws at Anfield and Arsenal, Manchester City looks like the team is shifting into the next gear – they’re unbeaten since December 6.
Guardiola’s players know exactly what it takes to push the envelope as they chase an unprecedented fourth consecutive title triumph. They have recovered from much worse situations than the one they found themselves in at the starting of the season.
Their strength in depth is unmatched, allowing them to proceed playing even without players of the caliber of Kevin De Bruyne and Erling Haaland at the start of the season. Guardiola named each Phil Foden and Rodri as his “players of the season”.
Now that De Bruyne and Haaland are back and the injury list is comparatively clear, they will likely be confident of doing all the pieces of their power to secure a record title.
Reasons to watch out
The bottom line is that no team has won 4 championships in a row. Facing stiff competition from Liverpool and Arsenal and mixing three competitions, can they maintain the level required for a fourth season in a row? There’s a reason this has never been done before.
Another glimmer of hope for his or her rivals is that they appear more vulnerable defensively than in previous campaigns. Having scored 31 goals in 31 games, they’re almost the most goals conceded under Guardiola, almost equal to the 2016/2017 season after they finished third.
What do the statistics say?
The top three have been at odds with one another since Christmas, after Spurs and Aston Villa dropped out of the top three.
If things go right down to points, Arsenal currently lead the goal difference battle by a cushty +51, followed by Liverpool (+42) and Manchester City (+40).
In terms of form, Liverpool have been the most consistent – never dropping points in greater than two consecutive Premier League games.
Since mid-November, City have drawn thrice in a row before losing 1-0 to Aston Villa. However, Guardiola’s men are unbeaten since December 6 and want to play out the season of their usual dominant form.
Arsenal suffered a slump over the Christmas period, losing three of their five games, but have returned to near-perfect levels with 10 wins and one draw of their last 11 games, with an aggregate scoreline of 38-4.
The graphic below shows each team’s upcoming matches in the Premier League. Which team has the easiest schedule?
The colours represent the difficulty level of each opponent, based on their current league position.
Arsenal’s average opponent is 8.ninth in the table, which is barely harder than Liverpool (9.9), while Manchester City (11.4) is off to a much easier start on paper.
So what’s the verdict? Well, Arsenal have the hardest league schedule on paper, but can their momentum go over the line?
Still unsure which team to support for the Premier League title when the curtain falls on May 19? You can use the interactive chart below to see how your opponents are performing this season across all key metrics to assist you to make your decision…
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