Liverpool, Arsenal or Man City? Analysis of the three-way Premier League title race

Arsenal, Liverpool and Man City are separated by three points in the Premier League table; Mikel Arteta’s men are having the hardest run in the league; The Gunners last won the league title 20 years ago; The course of Premier League games and club statistics were analyzed

Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester City are separated by just three points in the Premier League table – but which team has the best likelihood of taking the crown in May?

Liverpool regained the Premier League title with a 3-1 victory over Sheffield United on Thursday after Arsenal and Manchester City announced victories the previous day against Luton and Aston Villa respectively.

The race for the title indicates that it can reach the final on the last day of the season, on Sunday, May 19.

Paul Merson described the fight as “the best ever Premier League title fight”, while statistics show it was also the tightest in a decade: the last time three or fewer points separated first and third place after 30 games was in 2014 12 months. .

So what do the teams’ fate seem like with eight games left?

LIVERPOOL

Reasons for self-confidence

Liverpool’s attacking strength has lifted them to the top of the table, boosted by the return of Mohamed Salah to the starting line-up and scoring in last weekend’s 2-1 win over Brighton.

The support continues on the other side of the pitch, where Virgil van Dijk is back to close his best, Caoimhin Kelleher continues to prove himself a capable substitute for the injured Alisson, and even teenagers Bobby Clark, Jayden Danns and James McConnell are making impressive contributions .

Could the announcement of Jurgen Klopp’s departure at the end of the season improve their probabilities even further? The excitement actually improved the atmosphere at Anfield.

Reasons to watch out

Klopp has worked wonders with Liverpool’s midfield, rebuilding it almost from scratch after the departures of Jordan Henderson, Fabinho, James Milner and Naby Keita last summer. However, they still lack a number 6 who can compete with Rodri or Declan Rice.

Further injuries to Alisson and Thiago Alcantara further limit their options in these parts of the pitch, and despite Van Dijk’s excellent form, doubts also remain in defense, with Joel Matip ruled out for the rest of the season.

They have only conceded 28 goals, the second-fewest goals after Arsenal, but is the current rate sustainable? The numbers show they’re giving their opponents significantly higher probabilities than City and Arsenal, with an expected number of goals conceded to date of 35.81 against (xGa), in comparison with 21.09 for Arsenal and 29.24 for City.

ARSENAL

Reasons for self-confidence

Arsenal appear to be considered the very unlikely of the three contenders, but titles are often won by the best defense and the Gunners appear to have that this season. Their expected goals in games overall is unrivaled, reflecting their ability to suppress probabilities.

Arsenal were unable to seek out an attacking level to match their defensive prowess earlier in the season, but that appears to be changing. They scored 35 goals of their last 10 league matches. The floodgates opened.

Bukayo Saka led the Gunners’ attack, with Martin Odegaard, Leandro Trossard and Kai Havertz also showing improvement.

Declan Rice had a huge effect in midfield and the group looked hungrier and mentally stronger than last season.

Reasons to watch out

The capitulation of the previous season hangs over them. After blowing such a healthy lead against Man City when it gave the look of they might never get a greater likelihood, they now have so much to prove in relation to staying strong. These players don’t have the same level of experience winning trophies as their rivals.

Despite all of Arsenal’s recent improvement offensively, query marks also remain at the No. 9 position. Gabriel Jesus gives them so much of things, but he is not an important scorer. Could the absence of this outstanding striker with a killer touch still cost them?

CITY OF GUYS

Reasons for self-confidence

How long have you ever had? Even after draws at Anfield and Arsenal, Manchester City seems like the team is shifting into the next gear – they’re unbeaten since December 6.

Guardiola’s players know exactly what it takes to push the envelope as they chase an unprecedented fourth consecutive title triumph. They have recovered from much worse situations than the one they found themselves in at the starting of the season.

Their strength in depth is unmatched, allowing them to proceed playing even without players of the caliber of Kevin De Bruyne and Erling Haaland at the start of the season. Guardiola actually named Phil Foden and Rodri as his “players of the season”.

Now that De Bruyne and Haaland are back and the injury list is comparatively clear – Ederson is a doubt for Saturday’s game against Crystal Palace and Kyle Walker is predicted to return next weekend – they’ll still be confident of doing what they should do to make sure self-title victory.

Reasons to watch out

The bottom line is that no team has won 4 championships in a row. Facing stiff competition from Liverpool and Arsenal and mixing three competitions, can they maintain the level required for a fourth season in a row? There’s a reason this has never been done before.

Another glimmer of hope for his or her rivals is that they give the impression of being more vulnerable defensively than in previous campaigns. Having conceded 29 goals in 30 games, they’re near their highest rate under Guardiola, almost equal to the 2016/17 season after they finished third.

What do the statistics say?

The top three have been at odds with one another since Christmas, after Spurs and Aston Villa dropped out of the top three.

If things go right down to points, Arsenal currently lead the goal difference battle with +48, ​​followed by Liverpool (+42) and Manchester City (+38).

In terms of form, Liverpool have been the most consistent – never dropping points in greater than two consecutive Premier League games.

Since mid-November, City have drawn 3 times in a row before losing 1-0 to Aston Villa. However, Guardiola’s men are unbeaten since December 6 and want to play out the season of their usual dominant form.

Arsenal suffered a slump over the Christmas period, losing three of their five games, but returned to excellent levels with eight straight wins and an aggregate rating of 35-4.

The graphic below shows each team’s upcoming matches in the Premier League. Which team has the easiest schedule?

The colours represent the difficulty level of each opponent, based on their current league position.

Arsenal’s average opponent ranks 9.0 in the table, almost level with Liverpool (9.1), but Manchester City (11.3) are off to a much easier start on paper.

So what’s the verdict? Well, Arsenal have the hardest league schedule on paper, but can their momentum push the envelope?

Still unsure which team to support for the Premier League title when the curtain falls on May 19? You can use the interactive chart below to see how your rivals are performing this season across all key metrics to enable you to make your decision…

Advertisement content | Stream Sky Sports NOW

Stream Sky Sports live with no contract with a monthly or day by day membership with NOW. Instant access to live events from the Premier League, EFL, F1, England Cricket and far more.

Download Sky Sports on WhatsApp!

You can now start receiving news and alerts with the latest sports news, evaluation, in-depth features and videos from our dedicated WhatsApp channel!